The Strategic Standoff Between the United States and China
Written by Marc Ramsingh
Modern timeline of the United States and the PRCs relationship
The modern relationship between the United States (U.S.) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) began in the Rapprochement period (1968 -1972) during the 1970s when President Richard Nixon visited the PRC. This visit eventually led to the formal diplomatic relationship between the PRC and the U.S. . Henry Kissinger (Former United States Secretary of State) played a vital role in opening U.S. relations with the PRC (1971), Kissinger's motivation for his diplomatic decision was to counter the Soviet Union eventually snowballing into the modern relationship we have today. Post Rapproachment we saw Washington and Beijing grow closer in cooperation with the exchange of science and technology during the 1980s and the U.S. foreign policy focus on countering terrorism, especially post 9/11.
During the Obama administration (2009 - 2017) we saw signs of cooperation with bilateral agreements such as the US-China Clean Energy Research Center (CERC). “Chimerica” was also formed to work on international issues creating “G-2”. Rifts began to form over the PRC's increasingly aggressive actions such as espionage activities and their invasive actions in the South China Sea such as the creation of artificial islands to make false claims of land. With the Trump administration (2017 - 2021) a major shift in relations occurred with the PRC, shifting negatively. The Trump administration focused heavily on the PRC as a rising adversary, focusing on trade, tariffs, and national security. This is also where the China trade war occurred, in which the United States imposed tariffs and restrictions on Chinese goods. This view of the PRC as an adversary continued with the Biden administration (2021-2025) with arguably the highest tensions between the U.S. and the PRC in history. The Biden administration created an alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom (AUKUS) to counter the PRC’s actions in the South China Sea region specifically the PRC's rumored plan to invade and take Taiwan in the coming years.
Can the U.S. counter the PRC's subversion attempts?
The United States can subvert the PRCs growing influence in several key ways. First, the U.S. should operate intentionally in countering PRC cyberattacks, cybercrime, and the use of cyber tools to undermine U.S. infrastructure. This can initially be done by combining investments in cyber security and cyber intelligence as a defensive measure against all adversaries. The U.S. can present not only the PRC but also Iran, Russia, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) with a strategic cyber deterrence.
The U.S. can subvert Chinese influence across the globe by reaffirming its already established allies and alliances. This can be done by investing in infrastructure projects, strengthening economic relationships, and promoting our American democratic values across contested areas. Coordination with our allies to co-invest in infrastructure in developing countries would provide an alternative to the PRC “Belt and Road Initiative”, this would also pair well with promoting our American ideal in those developing areas juxtaposing them against our adversaries. Solidifying our economic relationships with our allies would enable the U.S. with more flexibility to counter the PRC, this would require stronger trade agreements and economic cooperation to decrease reliance on PRC trade.
How will the PRC respond to U.S. actions against them & what does the future hold for the South China Sea region?
In the coming years, we can expect the PRC to take several actions in response to an influential U.S. presence in the South China Sea region. First, we’ll likely see an increase in military presence from the PRC across the region, focusing on the PRCs illegal artificial islands, as well as continued cyber operations against U.S. infrastructure. Following those measures, the PRC is likely to try counter-economic measures against likely tariffs on Chinese goods to the U.S. The PRC will also look to strengthen its alliances with the DPRK and Russia to deter the U.S. and AUKUS. The PRC will also pursue more diplomatic routes to attempt to isolate the U.S. as much as possible to shift international sentiment against U.S. interests., this would be done by the PRC strengthening relations with The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The PRC will also use its propaganda and misinformation campaign to cause division domestically in the United States.
The event that appears to have a high likelihood of occurring in the near future is the attempt of the PRC to invade and take Taiwan by force. This event has a high probability of happening before 2030. Signs of this major geopolitical event occurring before 2030 show in factors such as increased PRC military activity around Taiwan, and increasingly frequent violations of Taiwan's sovereign airspace. Taiwan is located in such a strategic location close to a rising adversary that protecting the sovereign nation is in the U.S.'s best interest. Protecting Taiwan would provide global supply chain stability and a stronger trade relationship with South China Sea nations. U.S. allies in Japan, South Korea, and Australia will also play a crucial role in deterring and countering PRC aggression.
To counter the PRC's adversarial activities the U.S. should invest in cybersecurity, establish alliances, and promote our democratic values. The PRC will respond with military and economic measures, aiming to undermine the U.S. across the globe.
References
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